Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-03-04 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 7 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

DAL: 63.4%

COL: 36.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.57

COL: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	35	32	3	91.4%	2.68	0	-0.32
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	29	22	7	75.9%	2.65	1	-4.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • DAL at home vs COL: 7-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	0	0.89
1	COL	13	0	0.81
2	DAL	17	0	0.67
2	COL	14	0	0.67
3	DAL	10	1	1.09
3	COL	17	0	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 7 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.6 - 2.9