Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2023-03-04 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 0 - 3 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 69.3%

MIN: 30.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.84

MIN: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

CGY

J. Markstrom

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	33	30	3	90.9%	2.90	1	-0.10
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	31	31	0	100.0%	2.01	0	2.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • CGY at home vs MIN: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MIN 4 - 1 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-12-04	CGY 4 - 1 MIN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-09	MIN 2 - 0 CGY	MIN	CGY
2025-04-11	CGY 4 - 2 MIN	CGY	MIN
2025-01-25	MIN 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	12	0	0.55
1	MIN	12	0	0.79
2	CGY	17	0	0.61
2	MIN	16	0	0.66
3	CGY	14	0	0.86
3	MIN	20	1	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 0 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9