Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-03-05 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

PHI: 58.2%

DET: 41.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.36

DET: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

PHI

C. Hart

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	26	25	1	96.2%	2.14	1	1.14
DET	Ville Husso	37	34	3	91.9%	3.67	1	0.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs DET: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI
2024-12-18	DET 6 - 4 PHI	DET	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	22	0	1.59
1	DET	13	1	0.90
2	PHI	13	0	0.72
2	DET	6	0	0.34
3	PHI	18	1	1.36
3	DET	17	0	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3