Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-03-05 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

VGK: 61.9%

MTL: 38.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.72

MTL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

VGK

J. Quick

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	J. Quick	28	25	3	89.3%	2.36	4	-0.64
MTL	J. Allen	28	24	4	85.7%	2.70	0	-1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • VGK at home vs MTL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	MTL 3 - 2 VGK	MTL	MTL
2025-11-28	VGK 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-12-31	VGK 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-11-23	MTL 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-16	MTL 5 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	0	1.34
1	MTL	7	0	0.26
2	VGK	13	0	0.69
2	MTL	16	2	1.09
3	VGK	14	0	0.67
3	MTL	15	2	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.7 - 3.3