New Jersey Devils at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-03-05 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 4 - 5 New Jersey Devils (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 54.7%

NJD: 45.3%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.14

NJD: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 52%

ARI

C. Ingram - 24-24-0 | 0.907 SV% | 3.00 GAA

NJD

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	C. Ingram	40	35	5	87.5%	2.96	1	-2.04
NJD	V. Vanecek	29	25	4	86.2%	3.31	3	-0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ARI at home vs NJD: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-16	ARI 4 - 1 NJD	ARI	ARI
2023-10-13	NJD 3 - 4 ARI	ARI	ARI
2023-03-05	ARI 4 - 5 NJD	NJD	ARI
2022-11-12	NJD 4 - 2 ARI	NJD	NJD
2022-04-12	ARI 2 - 6 NJD	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	20	3	1.89
1	NJD	14	0	1.09
2	ARI	6	0	0.47
2	NJD	17	1	1.17
3	ARI	11	0	0.88
3	NJD	12	0	0.64
4	ARI	1	0	0.07
4	NJD	1	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 4 - 5 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9