Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-03-06 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 50.7%

EDM: 49.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.06

EDM: 4.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 54%

BUF

C. Anderson

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	37	34	3	91.9%	3.87	1	0.87
EDM	Stuart Skinner	39	37	2	94.9%	4.32	2	2.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	EDM 3 - 4 BUF	BUF	EDM
2025-11-17	BUF 5 - 1 EDM	BUF	BUF
2025-03-10	BUF 3 - 2 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-01-25	EDM 3 - 2 BUF	EDM	EDM
2024-03-21	EDM 8 - 3 BUF	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	21	0	1.43
1	EDM	25	1	1.97
2	BUF	18	2	1.79
2	EDM	12	0	0.76
3	BUF	15	0	1.11
3	EDM	14	0	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.1 - 4.0