Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2023-03-06 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

DAL: 45.7%

CGY: 54.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.00

CGY: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 51%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	38	33	5	86.8%	4.35	4	-0.65
CGY	J. Markstrom	33	29	4	87.9%	3.43	4	-0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs CGY: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	1	0.99
1	CGY	23	2	1.85
2	DAL	11	1	0.45
2	CGY	15	2	1.62
3	DAL	21	2	2.00
3	CGY	12	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1