Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-03-07 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

NYI: 65.6%

BUF: 34.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.52

BUF: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 53%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	24	22	2	91.7%	1.94	1	-0.06
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	39	36	3	92.3%	3.03	2	0.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs BUF: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BUF 4 - 3 NYI	BUF	BUF
2026-01-24	NYI 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-12-20	BUF 3 - 2 NYI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-23	NYI 1 - 7 BUF	BUF	NYI
2024-11-30	NYI 3 - 0 BUF	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	13	1	1.13
1	BUF	10	0	0.46
2	NYI	24	1	1.33
2	BUF	8	0	0.74
3	NYI	14	0	0.57
3	BUF	10	1	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1