New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-03-09 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 New York Islanders (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 54.3%

NYI: 45.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.95

NYI: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 75%

Over 6.5: 54%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	28	24	4	85.7%	2.74	1	-1.26
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	36	33	3	91.7%	3.54	0	0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • PIT at home vs NYI: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	0	1.35
1	NYI	10	1	0.52
2	PIT	16	0	1.17
2	NYI	11	0	0.53
3	PIT	12	0	0.79
3	NYI	19	0	1.36
4	PIT	3	0	0.22
4	NYI	2	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2