New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-03-09 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 58.8%

NJD: 41.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.07

NJD: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

WSH

D. Kuemper

NJD

A. Schmid

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	43	40	3	93.0%	5.10	5	2.10
NJD	A. Schmid	24	22	2	91.7%	2.26	0	0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 26% • WSH at home vs NJD: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	7	0	0.15
1	NJD	16	1	1.17
2	WSH	11	0	0.95
2	NJD	17	1	1.09
3	WSH	8	0	0.49
3	NJD	17	2	1.59
4	WSH	4	0	0.42
4	NJD	2	0	0.12
5	WSH	4	0	0.24
5	NJD	4	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0