San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2023-03-09 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 2 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 43.7%

SJS: 56.3%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.88

SJS: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	34	32	2	94.1%	3.55	1	1.55
SJS	K. Kahkonen	30	26	4	86.7%	3.35	2	-0.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • STL at home vs SJS: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	SJS 5 - 4 STL	SJS	STL
2026-03-26	STL 2 - 1 SJS	STL	STL
2026-03-06	SJS 2 - 3 STL	STL	SJS
2024-12-12	STL 3 - 4 SJS	SJS	STL
2024-11-21	STL 3 - 2 SJS	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	11	0	0.96
1	SJS	18	0	1.30
2	STL	10	0	0.72
2	SJS	14	0	1.12
3	STL	16	2	1.67
3	SJS	13	1	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 4 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4