Ottawa Senators at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2023-03-09 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 4 - 5 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

SEA: 51.4%

OTT: 48.6%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.63

OTT: 3.54

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 44%

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	31	26	5	83.9%	3.09	1	-1.91
OTT	Mads Sogaard	33	29	4	87.9%	3.03	1	-0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • SEA at home vs OTT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	SEA 4 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-16	OTT 4 - 3 SEA	OTT	OTT
2024-12-17	SEA 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-02	OTT 3 - 0 SEA	OTT	OTT
2024-01-04	SEA 4 - 1 OTT	SEA	SEA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	12	1	0.89
1	OTT	21	0	1.82
2	SEA	15	0	1.15
2	OTT	16	1	0.84
3	SEA	20	0	0.99
3	OTT	11	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 4 - 5 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.6 - 3.5