Detroit Red Wings at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-03-11 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

BOS: 52.3%

DET: 47.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.92

DET: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

BOS

L. Ullmark

DET

M. Hellberg

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	31	29	2	93.5%	2.02	0	0.02
DET	M. Hellberg	38	35	3	92.1%	3.75	2	0.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BOS at home vs DET: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	DET 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	DET
2026-01-13	BOS 3 - 0 DET	BOS	BOS
2025-12-02	DET 5 - 4 BOS	DET	DET
2025-11-29	BOS 3 - 2 DET	BOS	BOS
2025-03-29	DET 2 - 1 BOS	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	0	0.78
1	DET	20	0	1.16
2	BOS	21	1	1.80
2	DET	3	0	0.02
3	BOS	14	1	1.17
3	DET	18	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0