Arizona Coyotes at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2023-03-11 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Arizona Coyotes (OT)

Win Probability

COL: 62.6%

ARI: 37.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.01

ARI: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

ARI

C. Ingram - 24-24-0 | 0.907 SV% | 3.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	20	18	2	90.0%	2.41	0	0.41
ARI	C. Ingram	44	41	3	93.2%	3.86	1	0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs ARI: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-18	COL 4 - 3 ARI	COL	COL
2023-12-27	ARI 5 - 4 COL	ARI	COL
2023-12-23	COL 4 - 1 ARI	COL	COL
2023-11-30	ARI 4 - 3 COL	ARI	COL
2023-03-26	ARI 3 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	20	0	0.98
1	ARI	13	0	1.30
2	COL	20	0	1.08
2	ARI	10	0	0.98
3	COL	25	1	1.43
3	ARI	3	0	0.14
4	COL	3	0	0.36
4	ARI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 4.0 - 2.9