Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-03-11 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

TBL: 71.2%

CHI: 28.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.99

CHI: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 54%

TBL

B. Elliott

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	23	22	1	95.7%	2.43	1	1.43
CHI	Petr Mrazek	37	34	3	91.9%	4.20	2	1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs CHI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	CHI 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-23	TBL 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-28	TBL 1 - 4 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-24	CHI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-11-16	CHI 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	0	0.38
1	CHI	10	0	0.45
2	TBL	21	1	1.96
2	CHI	16	0	1.03
3	TBL	21	1	1.87
3	CHI	10	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 4.0 - 3.0