Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2023-03-11 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 0 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 66.1%

VGK: 33.9%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.52

VGK: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

VGK

J. Quick

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	24	20	4	83.3%	2.80	2	-1.20
VGK	J. Quick	33	33	0	100.0%	2.67	0	2.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CAR at home vs VGK: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-06-14	VGK 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-11	CAR 4 - 2 VGK	CAR	CAR
2026-06-09	VGK 3 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-06	VGK 5 - 4 CAR	VGK	CAR
2026-06-04	CAR 4 - 3 VGK	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	25	0	1.07
1	VGK	11	0	0.75
2	CAR	12	0	0.57
2	VGK	11	0	0.67
3	CAR	16	0	1.03
3	VGK	8	2	1.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 0 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0