Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2023-03-11 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

VAN: 50.8%

OTT: 49.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.02

OTT: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	20	18	2	90.0%	3.56	1	1.56
OTT	Mads Sogaard	30	25	5	83.3%	4.71	5	-0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VAN at home vs OTT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	VAN 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-13	OTT 2 - 1 VAN	OTT	OTT
2024-12-21	VAN 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-23	OTT 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	OTT
2024-01-02	VAN 6 - 3 OTT	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	18	1	1.53
1	OTT	9	0	0.86
2	VAN	9	2	0.95
2	OTT	12	0	0.87
3	VAN	19	2	2.22
3	OTT	13	1	1.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9