Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2023-03-12 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 3 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

DET: 51.6%

BOS: 48.4%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.04

BOS: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Ville Husso	33	30	3	90.9%	3.50	3	0.50
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	26	21	5	80.8%	3.61	2	-1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • DET at home vs BOS: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	DET 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	DET
2026-01-13	BOS 3 - 0 DET	BOS	BOS
2025-12-02	DET 5 - 4 BOS	DET	DET
2025-11-29	BOS 3 - 2 DET	BOS	BOS
2025-03-29	DET 2 - 1 BOS	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	11	1	1.09
1	BOS	7	1	0.60
2	DET	15	0	1.03
2	BOS	21	1	1.54
3	DET	11	1	1.49
3	BOS	19	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2