New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2023-03-12 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 New York Rangers (OT)

Win Probability

PIT: 59.5%

NYR: 40.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.19

NYR: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NYR

J. Halak

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	29	27	2	93.1%	2.67	0	0.67
NYR	J. Halak	35	32	3	91.4%	3.27	1	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • PIT at home vs NYR: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	20	0	1.69
1	NYR	9	0	0.60
2	PIT	15	0	0.94
2	NYR	17	0	0.97
3	PIT	9	1	0.57
3	NYR	15	0	1.11
4	PIT	1	0	0.07
4	NYR	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9