Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2023-03-12 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 54.1%

VGK: 45.9%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.11

VGK: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

VGK

J. Patera

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	31	26	5	83.9%	3.31	2	-1.69
VGK	J. Patera	33	30	3	90.9%	3.13	0	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • STL at home vs VGK: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-20	VGK 4 - 5 STL	STL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	14	0	0.97
1	VGK	11	0	0.85
2	STL	14	0	0.83
2	VGK	15	0	0.71
3	STL	18	0	1.33
3	VGK	14	2	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 3 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3