Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-03-13 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 8 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

MTL: 43.4%

COL: 56.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.81

COL: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

J. Allen

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	33	25	8	75.8%	3.48	0	-4.52
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	19	15	4	78.9%	2.03	2	-1.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs COL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MTL 7 - 3 COL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-29	COL 7 - 2 MTL	COL	COL
2025-03-22	MTL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-04	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL
2024-03-26	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	6	0	0.47
1	COL	11	0	1.15
2	MTL	8	0	0.41
2	COL	20	0	1.36
3	MTL	16	2	1.16
3	COL	10	0	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 8 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.8 - 3.6