Dallas Stars at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2023-03-13 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

SEA: 56.2%

DAL: 43.8%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.22

DAL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

SEA

M. Jones

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	M. Jones	32	27	5	84.4%	2.01	0	-2.99
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	26	2	92.9%	2.16	0	0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • SEA at home vs DAL: 3-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	DAL 4 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-11-26	SEA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-11-09	DAL 2 - 1 SEA	DAL	DAL
2025-03-31	SEA 1 - 3 DAL	DAL	SEA
2025-03-29	SEA 1 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	SEA	16	0.73
1	DAL	17	0.71
2	SEA	18	1.22
2	DAL	15	0.84
3	SEA	7	0.20
3	DAL	9	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 2 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2