Washington Capitals at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-03-14 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 3 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

NYR: 50.5%

WSH: 49.5%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.13

WSH: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	31	28	3	90.3%	2.55	2	-0.45
WSH	D. Kuemper	36	31	5	86.1%	4.60	4	-0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • NYR at home vs WSH: 8-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	25	0	1.88
1	WSH	15	0	0.47
2	NYR	14	3	1.62
2	WSH	18	2	1.48
3	NYR	9	1	1.11
3	WSH	9	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1