Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-03-14 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

EDM: 59.7%

OTT: 40.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.78

OTT: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	32	29	3	90.6%	2.84	2	-0.16
OTT	Mads Sogaard	33	27	6	81.8%	5.08	2	-0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	EDM 5 - 4 OTT	EDM	OTT
2025-10-21	OTT 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-22	EDM 3 - 1 OTT	EDM	EDM
2024-11-19	OTT 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	OTT
2024-03-24	OTT 5 - 3 EDM	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	10	0	0.90
1	OTT	10	0	0.79
2	EDM	22	1	2.62
2	OTT	12	2	1.11
3	EDM	12	1	1.56
3	OTT	16	0	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9