Calgary Flames at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-03-14 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 4 - 3 Calgary Flames (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 45.8%

CGY: 54.2%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.84

CGY: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 50%

ARI

C. Ingram - 24-24-0 | 0.907 SV% | 3.00 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	C. Ingram	45	42	3	93.3%	2.86	1	-0.14
CGY	J. Markstrom	25	21	4	84.0%	2.42	1	-1.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • ARI at home vs CGY: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-04-14	CGY 6 - 5 ARI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-16	CGY 3 - 2 ARI	CGY	ARI
2024-01-11	ARI 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	CGY
2023-03-14	ARI 4 - 3 CGY	ARI	CGY
2023-02-22	ARI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	16	0	0.96
1	CGY	21	0	0.75
2	ARI	12	1	0.74
2	CGY	17	0	0.91
3	ARI	7	0	0.35
3	CGY	20	1	1.20
4	ARI	3	0	0.37
4	CGY	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.8 - 2.7