Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-03-15 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 54.7%

COL: 45.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.51

COL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

I. Samsonov

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	31	29	2	93.5%	3.88	1	1.88
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	19	18	1	94.7%	2.06	0	1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs COL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	TOR
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL
2024-02-24	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	10	0	0.82
1	COL	14	0	1.00
2	TOR	6	0	0.45
2	COL	16	0	1.00
3	TOR	10	0	0.53
3	COL	9	0	0.50
4	TOR	1	0	0.13
4	COL	5	0	0.39
5	TOR	2	0	0.12
5	COL	2	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.5 - 3.3