New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2023-03-15 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 6 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 50.2%

NYI: 49.8%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.46

NYI: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 7.1

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 55%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	33	27	6	81.8%	2.91	3	-3.09
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	23	20	3	87.0%	1.48	1	-1.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • ANA at home vs NYI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	ANA 5 - 1 NYI	ANA	NYI
2025-12-11	NYI 5 - 2 ANA	NYI	NYI
2025-03-09	ANA 4 - 1 NYI	ANA	NYI
2024-10-29	NYI 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	NYI
2024-03-10	ANA 1 - 6 NYI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	9	1	0.60
1	NYI	19	1	1.05
2	ANA	11	0	0.49
2	NYI	16	1	1.00
3	ANA	10	0	0.38
3	NYI	6	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 6 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0