Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-03-16 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 9 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

FLA: 70.6%

MTL: 29.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.91

MTL: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 7.2

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 56%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	30	25	5	83.3%	2.48	1	-2.52
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	42	33	9	78.6%	4.02	3	-4.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • FLA at home vs MTL: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	FLA
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	23	0	1.65
1	MTL	9	0	0.41
2	FLA	24	3	1.55
2	MTL	16	0	0.81
3	FLA	9	0	0.82
3	MTL	15	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 14.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 9 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.9 - 2.7