Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-03-16 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 43.0%

PIT: 57.0%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.16

PIT: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 55%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	32	30	2	93.8%	2.84	0	0.84
PIT	Tristan Jarry	35	31	4	88.6%	3.55	3	-0.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • NYR at home vs PIT: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	18	0	1.23
1	PIT	9	0	0.51
2	NYR	10	1	0.65
2	PIT	17	0	1.10
3	NYR	18	2	1.66
3	PIT	20	0	1.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1