Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2023-03-16 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 7 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

VGK: 49.0%

CGY: 51.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.24

CGY: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 53%

VGK

J. Quick

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	J. Quick	30	23	7	76.7%	3.88	4	-3.12
CGY	J. Markstrom	19	17	2	89.5%	2.14	1	0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • VGK at home vs CGY: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	CGY
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	8	0	0.76
1	CGY	14	0	0.61
2	VGK	11	0	0.93
2	CGY	17	0	1.47
3	VGK	7	1	0.45
3	CGY	13	4	1.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 7 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4