Vancouver Canucks at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-03-16 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Win Probability

ARI: 50.5%

VAN: 49.5%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.11

VAN: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

ARI

I. Prosvetov

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	I. Prosvetov	31	29	2	93.5%	4.00	2	2.00
VAN	Thatcher Demko	27	24	3	88.9%	1.99	0	-1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ARI at home vs VAN: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-04-10	VAN 3 - 4 ARI	ARI	VAN
2024-04-03	ARI 1 - 2 VAN	VAN	ARI
2024-01-18	VAN 2 - 1 ARI	VAN	VAN
2023-04-13	ARI 4 - 5 VAN	VAN	VAN
2023-03-16	ARI 3 - 2 VAN	ARI	ARI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	17	0	0.58
1	VAN	19	0	1.51
2	ARI	19	0	1.11
2	VAN	17	0	1.10
3	ARI	6	0	0.30
3	VAN	19	2	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2