Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2023-03-17 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 50.1%
BUF: 49.9%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.26
BUF: 3.19
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
C. Hart
BUF
C. Anderson
| Stat | PHI | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | C. Hart | 38 | 36 | 2 | 94.7% | 2.94 | 1 | 0.94 |
| BUF | C. Anderson | 22 | 17 | 5 | 77.3% | 1.83 | 0 | -3.17 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • PHI at home vs BUF: 4-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | BUF 5 - 2 PHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-12-18 | BUF 5 - 3 PHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-12-03 | PHI 5 - 2 BUF | PHI | BUF |
| 2025-04-17 | BUF 5 - 4 PHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-29 | PHI 7 - 4 BUF | PHI | PHI |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 7 | 0 | 0.46 |
| 1 | BUF | 12 | 0 | 0.98 |
| 2 | PHI | 17 | 0 | 1.11 |
| 2 | BUF | 11 | 0 | 0.41 |
| 3 | PHI | 7 | 0 | 0.26 |
| 3 | BUF | 29 | 1 | 1.55 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 50.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.3 - 3.2
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