Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2023-03-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 48.9%

CAR: 51.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.56

CAR: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

I. Samsonov

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	34	32	2	94.1%	2.90	0	0.90
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	24	19	5	79.2%	2.16	0	-2.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CAR: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TOR	15	0.92
1	CAR	19	0.81
2	TOR	7	0.55
2	CAR	16	0.79
3	TOR	9	0.69
3	CAR	22	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.6 - 3.3