St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2023-03-17 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 59.9%

STL: 40.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.41

STL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

WSH

D. Kuemper

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	D. Kuemper	22	17	5	77.3%	2.21	3	-2.79
STL	Joel Hofer	34	32	2	94.1%	2.89	1	0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs STL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL
2025-11-05	WSH 6 - 1 STL	WSH	WSH
2025-02-27	WSH 2 - 5 STL	STL	STL
2024-11-09	STL 1 - 8 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-01-20	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	0	0.42
1	STL	11	0	0.52
2	WSH	15	0	1.07
2	STL	13	1	1.08
3	WSH	19	1	1.39
3	STL	5	2	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1