Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2023-03-18 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 54.6%

COL: 45.4%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.16

COL: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Ville Husso	23	18	5	78.3%	2.20	2	-2.80
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	34	33	1	97.1%	2.94	2	1.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • DET at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	COL 0 - 2 DET	DET	COL
2026-01-31	DET 0 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-03-25	COL 5 - 2 DET	COL	COL
2024-12-07	DET 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-06	COL 7 - 2 DET	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	22	1	1.68
1	COL	9	0	0.36
2	DET	8	0	0.34
2	COL	17	1	1.08
3	DET	13	1	0.92
3	COL	9	1	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4