Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2023-03-18 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 55.2%

CAR: 44.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.67

CAR: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

F. Sandstrom

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	F. Sandstrom	34	29	5	85.3%	4.34	5	-0.66
CAR	Frederik Andersen	33	29	4	87.9%	3.30	2	-0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • PHI at home vs CAR: 1-11

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-05-02	CAR 3 - 0 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-04-13	PHI 3 - 2 CAR	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	11	0	0.67
1	CAR	21	1	1.22
2	PHI	14	2	1.32
2	CAR	5	1	0.54
3	PHI	16	0	1.30
3	CAR	23	2	2.37
4	PHI	0	0	0.00
4	CAR	1	1	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.7 - 3.3