Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2023-03-18 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

TBL: 55.7%

MTL: 44.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.76

MTL: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 53%

TBL

B. Elliott

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	21	18	3	85.7%	1.77	1	-1.23
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	41	36	5	87.8%	3.46	1	-1.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs MTL: 7-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	0	1.12
1	MTL	6	0	0.21
2	TBL	17	0	0.86
2	MTL	16	0	1.01
3	TBL	21	1	1.49
3	MTL	8	1	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9