Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-03-18 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (SO)

Win Probability

OTT: 49.8%

TOR: 50.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.10

TOR: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Mads Sogaard	38	30	8	78.9%	6.49	5	-1.51
TOR	Matt Murray	61	54	7	88.5%	7.40	6	0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs TOR: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	22	1	1.25
1	TOR	11	0	0.65
2	OTT	22	2	1.25
2	TOR	14	1	1.25
3	OTT	21	0	1.23
3	TOR	8	0	0.58
4	OTT	8	0	0.64
4	TOR	2	0	0.22
5	OTT	9	3	3.03
5	TOR	9	4	3.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3