Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2023-03-18 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 6 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 44.1%

PIT: 55.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.10

PIT: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 53%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	33	33	0	100.0%	3.46	4	3.46
PIT	Tristan Jarry	24	18	6	75.0%	2.27	1	-3.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • NYR at home vs PIT: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	0	0.91
1	PIT	19	2	1.18
2	NYR	12	0	0.99
2	PIT	15	0	1.01
3	NYR	5	1	0.37
3	PIT	13	2	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 6 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2