Chicago Blackhawks at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2023-03-18 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 4 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

ARI: 53.3%

CHI: 46.7%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.19

CHI: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

ARI

I. Prosvetov

CHI

A. Stalock

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	I. Prosvetov	34	32	2	94.1%	1.69	0	-0.31
CHI	A. Stalock	21	17	4	81.0%	2.53	2	-1.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • ARI at home vs CHI: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-10	CHI 7 - 4 ARI	CHI	ARI
2024-03-05	ARI 2 - 5 CHI	CHI	ARI
2023-10-30	ARI 8 - 1 CHI	ARI	ARI
2023-03-18	ARI 4 - 2 CHI	ARI	ARI
2023-02-28	ARI 4 - 1 CHI	ARI	ARI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	9	0	0.62
1	CHI	20	0	0.58
2	ARI	13	0	0.53
2	CHI	19	0	0.58
3	ARI	8	2	1.38
3	CHI	10	0	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 4 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8