Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-03-19 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 7 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 65.4%

BOS: 34.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.18

BOS: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 54%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	25	18	7	72.0%	3.52	2	-3.48
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	26	26	0	100.0%	2.78	0	2.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs BOS: 4-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.83
1	BOS	9	1	1.01
2	BUF	13	0	0.85
2	BOS	13	1	1.16
3	BUF	18	0	1.10
3	BOS	13	0	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 0 - 7 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0