Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 7 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 57.6%

NSH: 42.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.17

NSH: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

BUF

C. Anderson

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	27	20	7	74.1%	3.90	2	-3.10
NSH	Juuse Saros	31	28	3	90.3%	3.69	1	0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs NSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	BUF 3 - 2 NSH	BUF	BUF
2026-01-20	NSH 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	NSH
2025-02-08	NSH 6 - 4 BUF	NSH	NSH
2025-01-31	BUF 4 - 3 NSH	BUF	NSH
2024-03-07	NSH 4 - 2 BUF	NSH	NSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	10	1	0.91
1	NSH	16	0	1.21
2	BUF	22	0	1.73
2	NSH	12	1	1.15
3	BUF	16	0	1.05
3	NSH	12	1	1.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 7 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0