Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

MTL: 54.8%

TBL: 45.2%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.09

TBL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 55%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	33	31	2	93.9%	3.28	3	1.28
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	20	17	3	85.0%	2.24	1	-0.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • MTL at home vs TBL: 4-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	1	1.36
1	TBL	12	1	0.78
2	MTL	10	0	0.35
2	TBL	18	2	1.80
3	MTL	8	0	0.53
3	TBL	11	0	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1