Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 7 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

NYI: 51.1%

TOR: 48.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.86

TOR: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.9

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 54%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

TOR

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	27	25	2	92.6%	3.04	2	1.04
TOR	I. Samsonov	29	22	7	75.9%	3.07	4	-3.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	12	0	0.51
1	TOR	13	1	1.41
2	NYI	10	1	0.87
2	TOR	17	1	0.85
3	NYI	13	3	1.69
3	TOR	12	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 7 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9