Arizona Coyotes at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 1 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

WPG: 63.3%

ARI: 36.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.33

ARI: 2.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	30	29	1	96.7%	1.85	1	0.85
ARI	K. Vejmelka	25	23	2	92.0%	3.31	2	1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WPG at home vs ARI: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-25	WPG 4 - 3 ARI	WPG	WPG
2024-01-07	ARI 2 - 6 WPG	WPG	ARI
2023-11-18	WPG 5 - 2 ARI	WPG	WPG
2023-11-04	ARI 3 - 5 WPG	WPG	ARI
2023-03-21	WPG 2 - 1 ARI	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	2	1.06
1	ARI	9	1	0.50
2	WPG	4	0	0.36
2	ARI	23	0	1.12
3	WPG	22	0	1.88
3	ARI	5	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 1 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.3 - 2.2