Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2023-03-21 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 57.1%

DET: 42.9%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.21

DET: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

DET

M. Hellberg

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	33	30	3	90.9%	3.73	1	0.73
DET	M. Hellberg	24	22	2	91.7%	2.93	1	0.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs DET: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-28	STL 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-25	DET 6 - 4 STL	DET	DET
2025-04-01	STL 2 - 1 DET	STL	STL
2024-12-23	DET 0 - 4 STL	STL	DET
2024-02-24	DET 6 - 1 STL	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	12	0	0.79
1	DET	9	0	0.38
2	STL	6	0	0.44
2	DET	11	0	0.82
3	STL	10	1	1.03
3	DET	21	0	1.18
4	STL	4	0	0.49
4	DET	3	0	0.30
5	STL	4	0	0.18
5	DET	4	1	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1