Arizona Coyotes at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2023-03-22 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Arizona Coyotes (OT)

Win Probability

EDM: 69.9%

ARI: 30.1%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.42

ARI: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

ARI

C. Ingram - 24-24-0 | 0.907 SV% | 3.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	17	14	3	82.4%	2.16	2	-0.84
ARI	C. Ingram	31	27	4	87.1%	4.47	3	0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs ARI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-04-17	ARI 5 - 2 EDM	ARI	EDM
2024-04-12	EDM 2 - 3 ARI	ARI	EDM
2024-02-19	ARI 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2023-03-27	ARI 4 - 5 EDM	EDM	EDM
2023-03-22	EDM 4 - 3 ARI	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	1	1.46
1	ARI	5	1	0.69
2	EDM	17	2	1.69
2	ARI	9	1	0.82
3	EDM	14	0	1.00
3	ARI	8	0	0.65
4	EDM	2	0	0.31
4	ARI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1