Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2023-03-23 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

BOS: 62.9%

MTL: 37.1%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.68

MTL: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	31	29	2	93.5%	2.89	0	0.89
MTL	J. Allen	21	17	4	81.0%	2.71	0	-1.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BOS at home vs MTL: 8-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	BOS	12	1.34
1	MTL	19	0.87
2	BOS	10	0.85
2	MTL	21	1.12
3	BOS	8	0.53
3	MTL	13	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0