Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2023-03-23 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 7 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 48.7%

TBL: 51.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.09

TBL: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 56%

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Mads Sogaard	29	27	2	93.1%	2.60	0	0.60
TBL	B. Elliott	35	28	7	80.0%	4.59	2	-2.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs TBL: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	TBL
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	21	1	1.40
1	TBL	12	0	0.75
2	OTT	12	0	1.12
2	TBL	19	0	1.36
3	OTT	17	1	2.06
3	TBL	8	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 7 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1