Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2023-03-23 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

FLA: 49.6%

TOR: 50.4%

Expected Goals

FLA: 2.95

TOR: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 55%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	27	21	6	77.8%	3.38	3	-2.62
TOR	Matt Murray	35	33	2	94.3%	2.32	0	0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • FLA at home vs TOR: 10-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	15	0	0.84
1	TOR	16	0	1.04
2	FLA	16	0	0.90
2	TOR	18	2	1.42
3	FLA	15	0	0.58
3	TOR	9	1	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4